A question of strategic credibility: How Europeans can fix the ammunition problem in Ukraine

Europeans need to take urgent steps to ensure a larger and more certain supply of ammunition to Ukraine – and thereby alter the military balance on the ground

The Russian war in Ukraine has exposed the question of ammunition stockpiles and production capacity in Europe and – to a lesser extent – north America. The limited existing stockpiles and constrained production capacities have moved from being a challenge for military logisticians and procurement experts to a major political issue. Recent New York Times reporting notes that the Ukrainians are using thousands of artillery rounds every day and describes impending shortages that could have a decisive effect on the war. In a conflict that is now existential not only for Ukraine and Russia but also for many European countries, the ability of Europe to provide ammunition to Ukraine has become a major test for its strategic credibility.

No single solution will solve the challenge alone, and so Europeans will need to adopt multiple tracks. These will range from short-term solutions, such as expanding European capacity to produce ammunition and more effectively coordinating procurement mechanisms, to longer-term efforts such as expanding access to financing or seeking extra-EU defence industrial partnerships.

The ammunition challenge

The ammunition problem is not exactly a surprise. Hardly any NATO or EU member state planned for the type of conflict taking place in Ukraine. The West collectively lacked both the stockpiles and the production capacity to meet the demands of high-intensity warfare. As early as mid-2022, the issue surfaced in debates at NATO and the EU. By autumn 2022, it was clear that industry was struggling to meet demand. In September 2022, the NATO secretary-general convened an extraordinary meeting of the Conference of National Armament Directors, NATO's top procurement officials, urging allies to continue replenishing stocks as rapidly as possible. The European Union developed and expanded initiatives such as the unprecedented use of the European Peace Facility (EPF), an intergovernmental mechanism funded by the member states to partially refund EU member states donating equipment and ammunition to Ukraine.

The United States has provided 1 million 155 mm rounds to Ukraine while its industry produces around 15,000 shells per month, currently ramping up to 20,000 with a target of 90,000 a month by 2025. The US army is also replenishing its stocks through purchases overseas, with a major contract with the Republic of Korea in particular. EU member states are supposed to be able to produce 650,000 rounds a year (large calibre ammunition) and have recently committed to deliver "one million rounds of artillery ammunition for Ukraine in a joint effort within the next twelve months." This is part of an unprecedented three-track approach developed by the EU which, on top of the use of the EPF, mobilises the European Defence Agency (EDA) to establish joint procurement contracts with the intent of speeding up contracting and delivery of key ammunition. The third track is led by the European Commission, which is working on ways to support ammunition production. Commissioner Thierry Breton is aiming to adapt the European Defence Industry Reinforcement Through Common Procurement Act to support the ramping up of EU production capacity. In his words, "it is time that the European defence industry moves to a wartime economy model to cater for our defence production needs". More concretely, and using the precedent of vaccine production, Breton is looking at ways of using the EU budget to assist the expansion of industry production capacity within existing regulatory constraints.

These actions could have an important impact on the war effort. Financial Times reporting suggests that a larger and more certain supply of ammunition would allow the Ukrainians to double their use of artillery and change the military balance on the ground.

Deliveries to Ukraine are not moving fast enough, especially as Ukrainians are preparing their own counter-offensives

It nevertheless remains clear that the deliveries to Ukraine are not moving fast enough, especially as Ukrainians are preparing their own counter-offensives and, as multiple media reports suggest, there are ammunition shortages on the frontline. This situation requires further efforts and innovative approaches, especially as the issue is not limited to artillery rounds but covers the entire range of ammunition, from anti-tank missiles to air defence systems and, soon, to spare parts for the weapon systems delivered.

Doing better, moving faster

Despite the real accomplishments to date, more needs to be done, and fast, as the coming months will be critical for the future of Ukraine. Specifically, the EU and its member states should embark on, or expand, the following efforts:

Of course, this focus on artillery ammunition should not lead policymakers to ignore the production and transfer of more complex weapon systems needed by Ukraine,such as short- and mid-range air defences and anti-tank missiles, which are also critical on the battlefield. Many of the recommendations above also apply to more complex weapons.

All these efforts are not mutually exclusive. Some will deliver results in the short term; others will require a sustained effort in the mid-to-long term. As many commentators and industry leaders continue to question the ability of Europe to deliver on its 1 million rounds pledge, Europeans have a duty and an opportunity to address the current challenges. They can show the world they are able to adjust to a new era of high-intensity warfare to support Ukraine and themselves.

The European Council on Foreign Relations does not take collective positions. ECFR publications only represent the views of their individual authors.