2023 Dynasty Rookie WR Rankings: Jaxon Smith

With the NFL Draft only days away and rumors flying, here is the final pre-draft update to the 2023 dynasty rookie WR rankings.

In a welcome change to years past, the 2023 incoming class of rookies is a breath of fresh air for dynasty, as not only is the wide receiver position top-heavy in talent, but the depth of the class sets it apart. Fantasy football will look very different by the time September rolls around. With the NFL Draft behind us and landing spots known, here is the post-draft update to the 2023 dynasty rookie WR rankings.

In 2021, Jaxon Smith-Njigba recorded 95 receptions and set a Big Ten single-season record with 1,606 receiving yards. With Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave sitting out the postseason as they focused on the NFL Draft, Smith-Njigba set a Rose Bowl record with 347 receiving yards on 15 receptions and was named MVP.

From a technical standpoint, Smith-Njigba checks every box. His hands and route running are phenomenal. He's an elite separator, has sensational body control, and is extremely intelligent in how he operates over the middle of the field. JSN doesn't get anywhere near the credit he deserves for his deceiving physicality and in-play intelligence, seemingly always flashing his numbers and working back to the QB when the play is extended.

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While not my ideal landing spot, I don't mind it enough to change his ranking amongst WRs. Seattle is very top-heavy at receiver with DK Metcalf and an aging Tyler Lockett.

Seattle was very efficient last season, but it all comes down to Geno Smith and if he can duplicate his 2022 season. It must be said Seattle, at least through Round 1, showed a lot of faith in him as they passed multiple opportunities to draft a QB.

JSN can be the perfect No. 3 in the slot and gives Seattle arguably the best WR room in the league. Once Lockett, 31, moves on, Smith-Njigba is primed to complement Metcalf for years to come, as Metcalf signed an extension before last season.

The 2021 Biletnikoff winner at Pittsburgh, USC WR Jordan Addison is one of the more decorated WRs of the class and had more than enough already on film. He is also one of the most refined in this group as well. With 4.49 speed at the NFL Combine, his dynamic play style is more than evident, and it helps in his RAC capabilities from both inside in the slot (58.3%) and out wide (41.7%).

Addison creates separation at all levels, and his tool belt is full both at the line on the release and at the stem. He posted an over 80% success rate vs. zone in Matt Harmon's Reception Perception. That will get Addison targets at the next level because separation is arguably the most important skill set teams look for in a wide receiver.

The concern is Addison's size at 5’11" and roughly 173 pounds. However, his landing spot is phenomenal. Minnesota's passing attack has been dynamic, with Kirk Cousins playing well and Justin Jefferson the top wide receiver in the league. Addison will fill the role vacated by Adam Thielen and step in as the No. 2 from Day 1.

Addison profiles similarly to DeVonta Smith and Tyler Lockett — route-running technicians who can generate YAC after manufactured touches and quick hitters. Doesn't that just scream Minnesota? Thielen averaged 6.9 targets per game in his three years alongside Jefferson.

Throw those toward Addison, and with increased per-touch efficiency, he moves into the WR2 spot for dynasty rookie wide receiver rankings even though Kirk Cousins is one of the older QBs left in the league.

Quentin Johnston is the guy for you if you’re a fan of big-body wide receivers. At 6’3″ and 208 pounds, he has a size advantage over 99% of corners and uses every inch of his frame to high-point with the best of them.

Of the consensus group of Tier 1 guys entering the season, Johnston was the only one who truly broke out in 2022 and appeared to improve his draft stock. With 1,064 yards and six touchdowns on 59 of 94 receiving, he averaged a massive 3.22 YPRR, 18 yards/reception, and an efficient 2.47 YPTPA. But there is more to it than that.

The concern for Johnston is he's a body catcher, which negates some of his size advantages. Additionally, drops are a bit of a red flag, as is his career 40.7% contested-catch rate. However, they mostly seemed to be concentration drops than an overall lack of trust in his hands. This is something that can get cleaned up and corrected.

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After the consensus seemed to shift that Johnston wouldn't be a first-rounder, those rumors were proven incorrect as Los Angeles selected Johnston with the No. 21 overall pick. He joins Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but the biggest part is OC Kellen Moore, who will bring a more vertically attacking scheme to LA that meshes not only with Justin Herbert but also Johnston.

Johnston will be fighting with Josh Palmer for targets in the beginning but could and should develop a larger role. But can we trust a TCU WR? Maybe the third time is the charm. I’ll certainly want a few shares. Johnston, having seen how WRs in this class are being viewed, is the WR3 in 2023 dynasty wide receiver rookie rankings. Yet, it is a near toss-up with Flowers, and I expect them near each other in drafts.

The meteoric rise of Zay Flowers was so fun to be a part of, as his skill set is undeniable. At 5’9″ and 182 pounds, the All-ACC wide receiver led the Eagles with 78 receptions for 1,077 yards and 12 touchdowns this year with six games of 100+ yards. Not only that, but Flowers is first in Boston College history in receptions (200), yards (3,056), receiving touchdowns (29), touchdowns in a single season (12), and single-season receptions (78).

He is an elite separator, drawing comparisons to Antonio Brown in how he stays in DBs’ blind spots and has incredible upside. Well, that was the case before the draft, at least.

But when I saw him go to Baltimore, even though they locked up Lamar Jackson, I could only hang my head. This is a low-volume passing game, and Flowers, even if he can maximize his targets, will be impacted by the offensive scheme. This is a direct shot at Rashod Bateman, too, as he has yet to remain on the field due to injuries.

I want to love Flowers, but the fantasy upside I believed he showed has been noticeably muted, though he will be a great NFL receiver. That I do not doubt. Perhaps his skill set is so good he can prove me wrong.

If the change in OC to Todd Monken and the addition of more pass catchers are a sign of things to come, Baltimore could look to open up the offense a bit more, and I’d view Flowers as a 1B to Odell Beckham Jr. But can Baltimore sustain four pass catchers when we include Mark Andrews, OBJ, Rashod Bateman, and Flowers? Something has to give.

I’d take just league-average passing output at this point out of Baltimore. That said, Jackson has a career-high of 401 attempts (2019) which would have ranked 18th last season.

The Panthers clearly had a plan when they made their blockbuster trade before the draft. That plan was to select Bryce Young and find their replacement for DJ Moore. They drafted that player in Jonathan Mingo, who has been one of the biggest risers in WR rankings, both pre and post-draft.

Although Mingo's college production wasn't elite, he can make plays all over the field. He's a big target at 6’2″ and 215 pounds and plays like someone of that size. Mingo's separation can be a bit inconsistent, but if you get the ball in his hands, he can be an electric playmaker. Mingo is also someone who saw a lot of manufactured touches, with screens accounting for 18% of his targets in 2022.

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Ole Miss has become a factory for receivers, with A.J. Brown, Metcalf, and Elijah Moore coming out in recent years. Can Mingo join that list? Yeah, I think he can. He's in a perfect spot to join and learn from Adam Thielen in his early years, plus he has DJ Chark to lean on as well, and this should be a more dynamic offense schematically with Frank Reich.

Mingo's the future (hopefully) No. 1 of the Panthers, and I’m going to draft him accordingly as my WR5 in dynasty rookie wide receiver rankings.

6) Jalin Hyatt, New York Giants7) Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers8) Marvin Mims, Denver Broncos9) Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs10) Cedric Tillman, Cleveland Browns11) Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts12) Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals13) Charlie Jones, Cincinnati Bengals14) Nathaniel Dell, Houston Texans15) Kayshon Boutte, New England Patriots16) Tyler Scott, Chicago Bears17) Xavier Hutchinson, Houston Texans18) Tre Tucker, Las Vegas Raiders19) Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams20) A.T. Perry, Pittsburgh Steelers21) Parker Washington, Jacksonville Jaguars22) Trey Palmer, Tampa Bay Buccaneers23) Andrei Iosivas, Cincinnati Bengals24) Dontayvion Wicks, Green Bay Packers25) Bryce Ford-Wheaton, New York Giants

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