Andrew Erickson’s Perfect 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy, Advice & Targets

The 2023 NFL season is approaching, so it's time to prepare for your fantasy football draft. Of course, there's no better way to do that than to practice drafting with our free mock draft simulator! Beyond our tools, we will have you covered throughout the draft prep season with our content.

The goal of every fantasy football manager is to complete the perfect draft. Impossible, you say? Let's call it a stretch goal and strive for fantasy football glory. Here's Andrew Erickson's perfect 2023 fantasy football draft.

*Note that a blend of ADP sources was used, including Underdog, FFPC, Drafters, ESPN, CBS and BB10s.

Whether it's best ball or redraft fantasy football, the golden standard approach of selecting a running back with your first or second-round pick has not changed. Although, of course, the landscape at the very top has changed slightly to favor the league's top-tier WRs, such as Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase. But this isn't the first time we have seen elite WRs favored against their running back counterparts.

It wasn't so long ago that the elite tier of WRs like Davante Adams, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr., DeAndre Hopkins and Antonio Brown were drafted in the top half of Round 1. So, seeing WRs being drafted ahead of many of the RBs is just part of the natural fantasy football cycle. Right now, there's a strong argument that today's top WRs are just better than the top RBs. However, with a strong crop of diverse running backs entering the player pool, I’d bet we return to the glory days where RBs reigned supreme in Round 1 — as they did just one season ago.

Because one thing's for certain — running backs are still the drivers behind fantasy-winning teams, so get your talented studs early in Rounds 1-2.

However, if I hold the first or second overall pick in a 2023 snake draft, I am 10/10 drafting either Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase. As I alluded to in the introduction, these guys are in their own separate tier at the top. The S TIER. And it makes sense to take them that high because there will still be very strong RB pairings available in Round 2.

It sets the stage nicely for the cleverly coined and my personal favorite "Hero RB" approach with a locked-and-loaded stud in your RB1 slot you can snag in Round 2 (or Round 1 if you are a mid-to-late snake draft pick). You’ve got one spot dialed in, and the other spot can be filled by the rotating carousel of remaining RBs on your roster.

Solidifying a top dog in Rounds 1/2 also helps you avoid reaching for running backs in the upcoming RB Dead Zone, where your primary focus should be drafting WRs poised for significant leaps in 2023.

It's not till the later rounds that you take shots on RBs with potential red-zone roles and pass-catching chops. You’ll also want to hone in on impending free agents, proven running backs and RBs in ambiguous backfields. That's where we’ll find the next breakout at the position.

It's the exact balancing act of drafting up-and-coming running back breakouts with the elites/top talents — while also playing matchups and avoiding red flags — that will help you draft the perfect team.

But, like with all successful strategies, being flexible is supercritical. Don't be so hyper-focused on grabbing a workhorse running back, no matter in Round 1, with some WRs representing equally, if not better, value in Round 1.

If you miss out on the Tier 1/high-end Tier 2 crop of running backs — Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley –, be open to drafting an elite wide receiver in the second half of Round 1. This is less so the move in half-PPR formats because receivers can't make up ground versus running backs as easily without being rewarded a full point per reception.

From 2018 to 2020, in PPR scoring, wide receivers have the highest percentage of top-12 finishes (55%). In 2021, seven of the top-12 overall finishers (58%) were WRs, with six finishing top-eight. That was true in both PPR and half-PPR scoring. However, the trend did not continue in 2022. Just six WRs finished inside the top-12 overall scorers, with five RBs and one tight end (Travis Kelce). Only four inside the top-8, and even split between WRs/RBs inside the top-6. In half-PPR, five running backs finished inside the top-8 overall, with just three WRs.

After Jefferson/Chase at 1.01/1.02, respectively, the strongest bets to meet Round 1 production include Cooper Kupp, A.J. Brown and Tyreek Hill. Note their odds of returning value increase dramatically in the PPR-scoring format.

As for picks 1.03 and.1.04, I feel more comfortable going after the top crop of running backs, assuming I missed out on selecting Jefferson/Chase. In Superflex formats, I am 100% drafting an elite quarterback if I own a top-4 selection.

In tight end premium formats, Kelce is also worthy of a top-4 selection. As I wrote in the tight end best ball primer, Kelce is in a tier by himself as a first-round pick. And having him this past year as a backend first-rounder was awesome with his 30% advance rate from Round 1 and 8% live rate on Underdog.

However, the fact that he is entering his age 34-season coming off a year where he distanced himself from the rest of the tight ends by a massive outlier amount has me slightly concerned he might be overvalued in 2023.

Should we expect him to perform as well or better in 2023? And expect the rest of the tight end field to perform as badly as they did in 2022? Especially when we have data from 2021 in a more "normal/flatter" tight end scoring year where going tight end in Round 1 did not yield the most optimal results. Hence, my hesitation. Not to say he can't run it back as TE1 (again). Antonio Gates finished as their TE2 at 34 years old with 12 receiving touchdowns. But he also wasn't a first-round pick in fantasy.

Early-Round Players to Target

Justin Jefferson: The Vikings WR finished first in fantasy points scored, 10th in target share (28%), third in yards per route run (2.70) and second in expected fantasy points per game (15.9) in 2022. His 11.1 expected TDs and 26 red-zone targets tied for first among all WRs. With Adam Thielen‘s TD presence gone — and Jefferson coming off a curiously low 8-TD year (two fewer than in 2021) — I expect him to score inside the double-digits in 2023

Ja’Marr Chase: I fully expect Justin Jefferson to be the consensus No. 1 wide receiver, but Ja’Marr Chase will be right on his heels as the No. 2. Chase led all WRs in red-zone targets per game (28 in 14 games played) and expected fantasy half-PPR points per game (16.4). Therefore, he's a solid bet to finish No. 1 in red-zone targets and receiving touchdowns in 2023.

His 22 receiving touchdowns through his first two seasons are the most by any WR since Odell Beckham Jr. In the games that Chase was healthy in 2022, he also posted a superior target share (30% vs. 28%) and identical air yards share (39%) to Jefferson. All things being considered, Chase also has a quarterback that could easily throw for 50 TDs. Kirk Cousins won't toss 40-plus touchdowns in this lifetime.

Mid-Round Players to Target

Bijan Robinson: The highly touted rookie running back from Texas was selected 8th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft by the Atlanta Falcons, and his fantasy football ceiling is sky-high. In his final college football season, Robinson was the second highest-graded rusher in the FBS per PFF and posted a staggering 37% dominator rating with 18 rushing TDs and 1,575 rushing yards. In addition, his impressive 40% broken tackle rate and 104 missed tackles forced demonstrate his ability to thrive at the NFL level.

In Arthur Smith's run-heavy offense last season, Tyler Allgeier, a former 5th-round pick, finished as PFF's highest-graded rookie RB and ranked 6th in rushing EPA. Allgeier averaged nearly 18 carries and 96 rushing yards per game from Week 13 onward in 2022. Given Robinson's superior talent and size compared to Allgeier, the first-year rusher is primed to be a three-down back for the Falcons. Considering the offense ranked first in early down run rate last season, Robinson has the potential to eclipse 300 carries and 1,500 rushing yards, making him a top-3-ranked running back in season-long formats.

Cooper Kupp: Cooper Kupp was originally in the S Tier of my 2023 WR rankings, but I moved him down in regard to concerns about Matthew Stafford‘s health. However, I still think Kupp will produce at an extremely high level if he and Stafford are healthy. Last year he led all WRs in points per game (18.4) while commanding the league's second-highest target share (31.3%) before his injury.

Austin Ekeler: In 2022, Ekeler led all running backs in receptions and targets, resulting in an RB3 finish in half-point scoring. His role as a receiver is particularly valuable in the Chargers’ pass-heavy offense, especially with the team's WRs struggling to stay healthy.

Ekeler is the focal point of the offense and should continue to see a high volume of touches in the final year of his deal. And better yet, the lack of RB depth behind him ensures his stranglehold on high-value touches. If the Chargers don't add any significant competition to their backfield — they have not as of this writing — Ekeler should remain a top fantasy option in a Kellen Moore-led 2023 Chargers offense. It's the final year of his contract, which was recently restructured to include an additional $1.75 million in incentives. Don't be surprised if we see one last monster year from Ekeler before he hits free agency.

Late-Round Players to Target

Johnathan Taylor: 2023 was a year to forget for the consensus 1.01 in last year's fantasy football drafts. Jonathan Taylor underperformed as the RB30 in 11 games played, averaging 12.6 fantasy points as the RB18 when healthy. JT's usage was that of a top-8 running back – 8th in expected points per game, 4th in touches per game (20) – but a lack of touchdowns decimated his fantasy stock in the Colts’ anemic offense. After scoring a combined 33 TDs through his 1st two seasons, Taylor scored just four rushing TDs in 2022.

From an efficiency standpoint, I’d expect a bounce-back effort from Taylor in 2023. He will be healthier in 2023, and rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson‘s mobility under center should increase JT's rushing efficiency. When Taylor first returned from injury (Weeks 10-13 in the 2022 season), he ranked as the RB3 overall. And he should experience some positive TD regression entering the final year of his rookie deal. However, it should be noted that with Richardson under center, Taylor won't cannibalize all the goal-line carries.

However, a mobile quarterback didn't stop Shane Steichen's running back, Miles Sanders, from scoring 13 TDs in 2022. Considering the wide talent gap and proven production from Taylor compared to Sanders, I’d bet Steichen's new RB1 will reach double-digit scores even if his rookie QB runs in a few himself.

A.J. Brown: Being high on A.J. Brown was a big hit for me in 2022, as the Eagles’ WR1 finished as the WR4. I acknowledged his uber-talent from his days in Tennessee, combined with an offense willing to throw more than his old team would unlock his fantasy football ceiling.

He did just that, finishing 8th in points per game (15.0) with a 29% target share. He posted the NFL's 6th-highest air yards share (39%) despite running fewer routes than his teammate DeVonta Smith. AJB tied a bow on his first year in Philadelphia, second overall in yards per route run (2.89) behind only Tyreek Hill and 6th in yards after the catch per reception. The 26-year-old remains in his uber prime and needs to be valued as such.

Fantasy managers should feel comfortable taking an elite wideout in Round 1 because Round 2 is filled with a plethora of running back talent. The potential non-first-round running backs — Nick Chubb, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, Derrick Henry, Rhamondre Stevenson, Breece Hall, Travis Etienne Jr. — provide enough production for a roster's RB1 slot.

Keep in mind many of those RBs don't need to be drafted in Round 2. Be aware of the ADP based on where you are drafting.

If you went with a running back in Round 1, consider whoever remains from the Tier 2 wide receivers: Garrett Wilson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaylen Waddle, A.J. Brown, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb.

But don't be afraid to double down at the running back position even if you already drafted a stud in Round 1 if the value presents itself. Anytime you can build a team that a bystander would look and say, "How did you draft that team!?"

Round 3 is where we have typically seen the elite quarterbacks come off the board. But this year, we have already seen them rise into Round 2 based on the edge elite fantasy quarterbacks presented to drafters last season. However, as I laid out in my QB Best Ball Primer — as did Tom Strachan in his early approach to best-ball drafts last season — being the first to draft a quarterback doesn't always grant you the best advance rate.

Tom said it best by defining the elite QBs’ win rate as "disappointing, to say the least," entering 2022.

And he would be proven right. Only two of the QBs drafted inside the top-4 rounds finished with top-4 advance rates. Essentially a coinflip.

Meanwhile, Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts were being drafted outside the first five rounds. And the other five quarterbacks with the highest advance rates from Round 1 were drafted outside the top 100 overall picks.

Value is still the name of QB, so I stress a pseudo-late-round "elite" quarterback strategy. Essentially getting the last or second-to-last quarterback with top-tier upside to capitalize on value. Of course, this will change based on where QBs fall in ADP, but Rounds 4-6 is the more appropriate range.

Early-Round Players to Target

Amon-Ra St. Brown: Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of my other favorite targets in this range. I feel so comfortable pushing the draft button on him in Round 2 with zero hesitance to speak of. His 32% target rate per route run trailed only Tyreek Hill in 2022.

The Lions also own a top-10 schedule for the entire season and through the first six weeks of the year. With no Jameson Williams and a slate of favorable defensive matchups, there will be no stopping the burn from the Sun God himself. Detroit is tied with Jacksonville with the most favorable strength of schedule for fantasy WRs this season.

From Weeks 8-18, St. Brown averaged 80.5 receiving yards, seven receptions and 17 PPR points per game. I love his longshot odds to lead the NFL in receiving yards at 25-1 odds.

Nick Chubb: As one of the league's premier pure rushers, Nick Chubb quietly amassed an impressive 1,525 rushing yards (5.0 yards per carry again) and 13 touchdowns in 2022, finishing as the RB6 overall with a top 10 backfield opportunity share (64%). From Weeks 1-12, he was the RB4 overall and in points per game. However, his production tailed off towards the end of the season with the return of Deshaun Watson to the lineup, dropping him to RB23 overall in Weeks 13-17.

However, with Watson expected to raise the ceiling of the Browns’ offense with a full offseason back to football, Chubb's fantasy production should remain more consistent throughout the 2023 season, making him a near-bust-proof draft pick. He is currently the betting market's favorite to lead the NFL in rushing yards at +700 odds per DraftKings Sportsbook.

Additionally, with the departure of running backs Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson, Chubb could see an increase in opportunities in the receiving game. He demonstrated his ability in this area with a strong Week 18 performance, playing a season-high 75% snap share, running a route on 71% of dropbacks and catching five-of-six targets (22% target share) for 45 yards. Unproven 2022 fifth-rounder Jerome Ford is currently pegged as the No. 2 RB.

Mid-Round Players to Target

Josh Jacobs: Jacobs was a league winner for many fantasy managers in 2022, as he outperformed his draft day ADP to finish as the RB2 overall. Despite concerns about a committee backfield, Jacobs proved to be a bell cow for the Raiders, leading the league in touches throughout the regular season. Now returning to Las Vegas on the franchise tag, Jacobs is poised to be the focal point of the Raiders’ offense once again. While the lack of depth behind him on the depth chart may be a concern for the real-life Raiders, it foreshadows that Jacobs will likely see heavy volume as the clear lead back. As long as he stays healthy, the 24-year-old should be a reliable RB1 option for fantasy managers in 2023.

Garrett Wilson: From Day 1, Garrett Wilson was my favorite rookie WR from the 2022 class. The dude could get open at will and check off all the boxes as an early declare being selected inside the top 10. And he did not disappoint. The former Buckeye commanded a 53% target share in Week 18 to close out a rookie season with a 25% target share, 86% route participation and 146 targets (top-10), despite not being a full-time player until Week 8. WR22 overall and WR20 in expected points per game.

Entering 2023, Wilson will have a major upgrade at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers under center. Last year in games started by non-Zach Wilson Jets QBs, Wilson averaged over 17 fantasy points, six catches, 11 targets, and 82 receiving yards per game. Top-10 fantasy WR numbers. If Rodgers can provide just average accuracy throwing the ball (which seems manageable), Wilson will crush it in 2023. No Jets QB completed more than 60% of their passes last season. Rodgers completed 64.6% of his passes last season, which was close to his career average (65.3%).

Wilson is also a prime candidate to experience positive TD regression after finishing as just one of three WRs with 1,000 receiving yards to score fewer than five TDs.

Late-Round Players to Target

Tony Pollard: Looking ahead to the 2023 fantasy football season, Tony Pollard will be playing for the Cowboys on the franchise tag after an impressive 2022 campaign. With Ezekiel Elliott no longer on the roster, Pollard will have the opportunity to take over as the team's lead back. Last season, he finished as the RB7 in fantasy despite ranking outside the top 25 in touches per game.

Pollard's efficiency was on full display as he averaged 5.3 yards per carry and was the third-highest-graded running back by PFF. From Weeks 7-16, Pollard was the highest-scoring running back in fantasy with 19.3 points per game while playing as the team's featured back. Although the Cowboys added Ronald Jones in free agency and drafted Deuce Vaughn late in the 2023 draft, neither player poses a significant threat to Pollard's touch volume, as a healthy Pollard should continue to be a formidable asset in fantasy football. Even if Dallas eventually does bring in another body, Pollard's efficient play style will mitigate any workload limitations.

Chris Olave: Chris Olave ended his strong rookie season eighth in total air yards (1,531) while commanding a 25% target share and 10th-ranked air yards share (38%). He was the WR26 in points per game (11.0), sixth in yards per route run (2.42) and eighth in target rate per route run (28%). He joins his ex-teammate Garrett Wilson as one of just six first-round WRs drafted since 2014 to average at least 64 receiving yards per game. The former Ohio State Buckeye posted of the most efficient seasons we have ever seen from a rookie WR.

His downfield skill set and per-route efficiency will gel extremely well with his new quarterback, Derek Carr, in 2023.

Olave is also a prime candidate to experience positive TD regression after finishing as just one of three WRs with 1,000 receiving yards to score fewer than five TDs.

Ideally, after Round 2, you have acquired at least one elite running back as your hero RB. This approach makes staying fluid and flexible for the next few rounds much easier. It's essential to draft at least one running back in the first two rounds because the talent pool starts to fall off at the start of Round 3. Also, the middle rounds are chock-full of wide receiver talent, which should be the primary focus.

Draft the next highest-ranked wide receiver from the next tier, which could include DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, Chris Olave, DK Metcalf, Amari Cooper or Calvin Ridley.

If you still haven't drafted a tight end, Mark Andrews is your guy at the end of Round 3

If, for some reason, you’ve avoided running backs up to this point or the other drafters went extremely receiver-heavy through the first three rounds, don't shy away from another stud running back if one falls with zero-RB all the rage nowadays. Especially in half-PPR, where running backs are better versus WRs, with the format more dependent on touchdowns.

Early-Round Players to Target

Rhamondre Stevenson: If Rhamondre Stevenson experiences positive TD regression with the red zone role all but his in New England, he will build off a strong sophomore season as PFF's 11th-highest graded rusher. It's his backfield with little competition for touches in an offense that should be substantially better than last season. Damien Harris has been replaced by human meat shield James Robinson on a monopoly money and heavily incentive-based contract making him no lock to make the roster.

The low commitment suggests that Stevenson's role in 2023 will be more of what we saw from Weeks 5-16 when he was the RB13 in points per game as the Patriots’ No. 1 RB. Stevenson has a sky-high fantasy ceiling that is worth buying into. His combined size and pass-catching props are a fantasy manager's dream for the running back position.

Breece Hall: Breece Hall burst onto the scene in 2022, showcasing his talent and proving that he has the potential to be one of the NFL's best running backs. Unfortunately, his season was cut short due to a torn ACL, but Hall is expected to make a strong recovery and be ready for training camp. In just seven games played, Hall was the RB6 in half-PPR points per game, averaging an impressive 5.8 yards per carry as a rusher and ranking fourth in yards after contact per attempt (4.13). He also made an impact as a receiver, ranking fourth in RB receiving yards with an elite 34.4% target rate per route run.

Mid-Round Players to Target

Travis Etienne Jr: The Jags new RB1 proved himself to be a great fantasy asset during the 2022 season, averaging 15 fantasy points per game from Weeks 7-17 (RB8 in points per game) and finishing tied for 5th in carries inside the 10-yard line (23) despite only scoring four touchdowns on those carries. ETN ended the year with 1,291 rushing yards averaging 5.1 yards per carry in 19 games played as PFF's 19th-highest graded rusher.

He finished fourth in total forced missed tackles, trailing only Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb, and Derrick Henry. All that was despite Etienne suffering a foot injury that knocked him out of a Week 12 contest versus the Baltimore Ravens. Additionally, Etienne's potential as a receiver remains tantalizing. While he had a limited role in the passing game in 2022, he was the primary route runner among the Jaguars’ running backs, and his 22% target rate per route in three of his last four games played is a strong indication of his receiving upside.

The possibility of injury to one of the team's top receivers, such as Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, or Evan Engram, could result in an even greater receiving role for Etienne next season.

DK Metcalf: DK Metcalf was one of my biggest dynasty targets last offseason, and he did not disappoint even with a new quarterback. The super-sized WR finished as the WR24 in points per game and as the WR17 overall, but I’d argue that Metcalf left meat on the bone in his first year with Geno Smith at the helm, considering his final output didn't truly reflect his alpha usage. He was the WR12 in expected points per game based on ranking 18th in target share (25.5%) and 12th in air yards share (37%). He tied for second overall in red zone targets with Justin Jefferson.

DeVonta Smith: It was a true 1A-1B WR situation in Philadelphia last season. DeVonta Smith actually finished the season with more routes run than A.J. Brown (his 96% route participation ranked fourth overall), and the two were basically even split in target share (27% vs. 29%). Smith's high-end usage resulted in a backend fantasy WR1 finish in his second season with an average of 12.3 points per game (16th). The "Slim Reaper" also ended the year 14th in yards per route run.

Late-Round Players to Target

Mark Andrews: Mark Andrews was nearly matching Travis Kelce's expected fantasy point output last season before Lamar Jackson‘s injury. His season-long 29% target share led all tight ends in 2022. And only four other tight ends scored fewer fantasy points under expectation than Andrews. All reasons to buy into Andrews having a bounce-back season.

Because even if Andrews sees fewer targets after the WR additions the Ravens made this offseason, I’d bet it ends up being a net positive with a boost in overall efficiency (which was severely lacking last season).

Amari Cooper: Cooper will be one of my primary targets in this range, with quarterback Deshaun Watson under center. Cooper finished as the WR9 overall and WR13 overall in points per game in 2022. His 2.11 yards per route run was the second-best mark of his career. And Cooper's 42% air yards share ranked second among all WRs.

Round 3 Takeaways:

The wide receivers in Round 4 are just as good as those in Round 3, so continue to pound away at the position. The primary wide receiver targets include Deebo Samuel, Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, Calvin Ridley, Terry McLaurin, D.J. Moore, Jerry Jeudy and Christian Watson, the latter of which can be found sometimes much cheaper.

If you have only one running back rostered (or none), Breece Hall is the priority target. After that, rookie Jahmyr Gibbs.

Considering ADP, Round 4 is also where I might feel most comfortable pulling the trigger on an elite fantasy QB such as Justin Fields, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert.

Justin Fields: Looking ahead to this season, it's highly anticipated that Bears’ quarterback, Justin Fields, will make a significant leap in his performance. Not only did he finish last season as QB6 in points per game with 20.6, but during his 11 games played from Weeks 5-17, he ranked as QB5 in points per game with a 24.1 per game mark. Moreover, the Bears have made significant improvements to their supporting cast in the offseason – highlighted by the additions of D.J. Moore and Darnell Wright — which sets the stage for Fields to continue his upward trajectory and become a supernova fantasy producer in Year 3.

Calvin Ridley: Marvin Jones‘ usage can provide us an idea of how the Jaguars will deploy their three top WRs in 2023, between Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Calvin Ridley. Jones ran a route on 73% of the dropbacks and led the Jaguars in deep targets (18) in 2022. He only caught three of them. All three players will be full-time starters in three WR sets, with Ridley providing a much-improved upgrade as a deep/red-zone threat.

Let's not forget that the last time we saw Ridley suit up, he was borderline elite at commanding targets. As the Falcons’ No. 1 receiver, he owned the sixth-highest target rate per route run and ranked second among all wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game (16.5). He's being drafted as a fantasy WR2 with easy fantasy WR1 upside, just two years removed from a 90-1374-9 2020 campaign.

Not to mention, Per FantasyPros’ strength of schedule tool, the Jaguars boast the No. 1 SOS for fantasy quarterbacks and fantasy WRs. The 2023 calendar is great for quarterback Trevor Lawrence and co. to take another leap in Year 3.

Jahmyr Gibbs: Jahmyr Gibbs, the highly-touted rookie running back, is set to take the field for the Detroit Lions in the upcoming 2023 fantasy football season. Gibbs displayed his impressive skills in college, with a 24% dominator rating during his time at Georgia Tech, where he played alongside future NFL running back Jordan Mason.

In his first year with the Crimson Tide, Gibbs demonstrated his receiving prowess, ranking third in the FBS in receiving yards and leading all RBs in the nation in receiving yards in the previous year. Gibbs’ breakaway run rate was fifth in the class, indicating his explosiveness as a rusher. At 5-foot-9 and 199 pounds, Gibbs is smaller than some other backs, but his speed and receiving ability more than makeup for it.

The Detroit Lions invested heavily in Gibbs, selecting him 12th overall in the NFL Draft, indicating that he is likely to take on a significant workload. Gibbs is expected to fill the role previously held by D’Andre Swift, who was highly efficient last season. Despite splitting touches with Jamaal Williams, Swift managed to rank highly in fantasy points per touch, yards per carry, and yards after contact per attempt.

With Swift now with the Eagles, Gibbs is expected to inherit a workload of at least 224 touches (based on the usual workload for a first-round rookie RB), with the potential for even more if he takes the lion's share of the carries. With his size and receiving ability, Gibbs could be a backend RB1, making him an attractive prospect for fantasy football enthusiasts in the upcoming season.

Continue to bolster depth with the next tier of wide receivers (Jerry Jeudy, Drake London, Mike Williams, Christian Watson, Chris Godwin, Tyler Lockett) and/or running backs (J.K. Dobbins), assuming the ones mentioned from Round 4 have already been selected. But do your best to push RB out as much as possible in this range coined the "RB Dead Zone."

Really try to go WR or even elite tight end first before another running back.

Jerry Jeudy: Jerry Jeudy impressed tremendously down the stretch when healthy. No player scored more fantasy points in (PPR) with a sub-75% overall route participation or posted a higher yards per route run versus man coverage than Jeudy last season. He also finished 13th in target rate per route run (23%).

And in Jeudy's last six games, he earned a 25% target share and finished fifth in receiving yards overall. From Week 10 onward, the Broncos wide receiver led the NFL in yards per route run (2.71).

Obviously, any upgraded quarterback play is great for Jeudy because he easily projects as the No. 1 WR on the offense from a volume perspective. And last year, he finally showed that he could score fantasy points finishing as the WR21, after failing to crack the top-45 his first two years in the league. With great route-running and separation skills to boot, Jeudy's stock should continue to rise.

Christian Watson: Christian Watson could experience a sophomore slump if Jordan Love can't deliver as the full-time starter for the Packers. However, I’d remain a buyer of Watson regardless because Watson was absolutely dynamite as a rookie.

His 26% target rate per route run is nothing but impressive, ranking 17th among all WRs with at least 400 snaps. Watson's 2.47 yards per route run ranked inside the top 10 and tied with superstar Davante Adams.

And in a must-win Week 18 contest vs. the Lions, he was once again the target leader (23% target share), going for 104 receiving yards on a team-high five catches. From Week 10 through Week 18, Watson ranked first in yards per route run (2.78). Over the same span, Watson was the WR9 in both total points and on a per-game basis in PPR.

If Watson takes over the downfield and red zone looks that Allen Lazard saw the majority of in 2022, prepare for a massive second-year leap.

He is the clear alpha in the Packers’ passing game, with the current depth chart listed as Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Grant DuBose and Samori Toure.

https://twitter.com/AndrewErickson_/status/1645842460306702354

J.K. Dobbins: J.K. Dobbins’ 2022 campaign got off to a sluggish start as he was recovering from major knee surgery and missed the first two weeks of the season.

However, when Dobbins finally returned later in the year, he showed why he's such a highly regarded talent. In his last five games, including the playoffs, he averaged an impressive 6.6 yards per carry, 92 rushing yards, and 14 carries per game. This strong finish is a promising sign for his 2023 prospects in an offense that should light the league ablaze under the QB/OC combination of Lamar Jackson/Todd Monken.

And although he continued to split carries with Gus Edwards in 2022, Dobbins’ explosive running style and effectiveness in the Ravens’ offense make him the best fantasy asset. Despite the presence of Edwards and Justice Hill in the backfield, Dobbins is the clear lead back for the Ravens and should be viewed as a top-tier fantasy option in 2023. Baltimore could ride him into the ground as an impending free agent.

Many of the elite quarterbacks will be off the board before Round 6. If you desire a QB, draft whichever top-tier passer – Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow or Justin Fields etc. — remains. The opportunity cost of drafting an elite quarterback is so much better in Round 6 versus Round 2/3.

And as always, don't feel pressured to draft a signal-caller because there are still plenty of great options in the following rounds. Oftentimes one slips into Round 7 or 8, such as Trevor Lawrence Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson or Tua Tagovailoa.

If there is a potential breakout running back/wide receiver available, continue to exhaust the remaining running backs and wide receivers available atop the 2023 rankings.

Chris Godwin: Godwin should remain at worst in the fantasy WR2 conversation regardless, based on a solid role in the slot. He still will be the heavy favorite to lead the team in targets and will be another year removed from his ACL injury. Over 1,000 receiving yards last season with just three TDs. Mayfield posted decent completion numbers with the Rams, and I think the offense in Tampa will be similar to that based on new OC Dave Canales coming from the Sean McVay, Shane Waldron scheme. From Week 4 onward, Godwin was WR11 in points per game last season.

Cam Akers: Akers had a rocky start to the 2022 season, getting benched in Week 1 and facing doubts about his role in the Rams’ backfield. However, Akers eventually emerged as the team's RB1 and finished the season as the RB4 in the final six weeks leading the NFL in rushing yards (85 yards/game). As the Rams enter a new season, Akers’ potential for high volume makes him an appealing option in fantasy football.

One reason for optimism is that Sean McVay is staying in Los Angeles, which bodes well for Akers to remain the primary option in the backfield. Akers played every snap in the Rams’ season finale, and the team did not select any running backs until the sixth round of this year's draft. This means that Akers will face little competition for touches, with only Day 3 picks Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers, as well as Zach Evans, as potential "threats".

Diontae Johnson: I am firmly planting my flag on Steelers WR Diontae Johnson to have a massive bounce-back campaign. He didn't score last season — likely a fluke — and second-year WR George Pickens is a darling in the fantasy community. But even though DJ is still the more proven asset, Pickens is consistently drafted ahead.

Johnson's ability to command targets based on his 28% target share and seventh-ranked 137 targets in 2022 suggests he is a prime candidate for positive regression in many facets. His combined downfield targets and red-zone targets were the most of any player not to score in 2022. Those trends don't tend to carry over from year-to-year. Buy-low on the WR15 in expected fantasy points per game from last season.

Darren Waller: By far, my favorite tight end to draft in this range is Darren Waller. He is my No. 3-ranked tight end. Because becoming the No. 1 pass-catching option for a team as tight end is a rare feat. There's only a handful of teams that feature such a player, with the Giants being the newest to join the list after their acquisition of the ex-Raiders tight end.

The 6-foot-6 pass-catcher came to Big Blue in exchange for a third-round pick, and he immediately should step in as the clear-cut No. 1 target for Daniel Jones. That was not the case for Waller last year, as he was fighting for targets with alpha Davante Adams. But Waller showed that when he was healthy that he could still deliver, ranking second in the NFL in yards per reception (13.9) and 10th in yards per route run. Waller "the baller" still has plenty left in the tank and should be viewed as a clear-cut winner post-trade.

He has the chance to replicate his 2021 numbers when he was the No. 1 receiver in his offense, posting top-5 fantasy tight end numbers. And better yet, Daniel Bellinger‘s elite usage/route participation from last season in the Brian Daboll offense as an every-snap player — 80 percent-plus snap share in six of the last seven games — suggests that Waller won't leave the field. That will make it that much easier for the TE7 in ADP to crest elite fantasy tight-end status.

TE Leaders in yards per route run (final 6 weeks)

1. Darren Waller – 2.662. Jelani Woods – 2.603. Chigoziem Okonkwo – 2.504. Travis Kelce – 2.215. Juwan Johnson – 2.16

Woods is DISCOUNT Okonkwo

S/O to @Fitz_FF for calling out Woods' 8-catch game last year as well. A rare...

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) May 19, 2023

Jordan Addison: I love targeting first-round rookie WR Jordan Addison in this range. He tends to be cheaper than fellow first-rounder Jaxon Smith-Njigba despite the former having the much better landing spot as the No. 2 WR alongside Justin Jefferson in the Vikings offense. It's Addison's NFL team fit and college profile that have me fully expecting him to hit the ground running. Recall that Addison broke out as an 18-year-old freshman in 2020 with 60 catches for 662 receiving yards and four receiving TDs.

The early-age production is a sign of an elite prospect, and it clearly foreshadowed Addison's rise to become one of the best WRs in college football. He transferred to USC from Pittsburgh this past year and led the Trojans with 59 catches for 875 yards and eight receiving TDs (79 targets). But more importantly, the 5-foot-11 and 173-pound wide receiver proved that he could play more outside after spending most of his time in the slot at Pittsburgh.

Antonio Gibson: Gibson had a polarizing 2022 season, splitting work in the Commanders’ backfield with rookie Brian Robinson. However, Gibson's proven track record of production, ideal size, and pass-catching chops make him an enticing buy-low running back target. Despite operating as an RB3 for much of the second half of 2022, Gibson remained much more involved in the passing game than Robinson, with an impressive 14% target share and an 80.5 PFF receiving grade.

The release of J.D. McKissic further solidifies Gibson's role as the primary receiving back for Washington. As a free agent at the end of 2023, the team could ride Gibson till the wheels fall off. Additionally, new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy's arrival may lead to more opportunities for Gibson, as he has no prior commitments to the hierarchy of the backfield from the 2022 season.

We could easily see him in a Jerick McKinnon-esque role in Washington. The Commanders’ tough schedule also foreshadows negative scripts, which favor Gibson's pass-catching abilities. Grab him as early as Round 9 or as late as Round 11.

Zach Charbonnet: Charbonnet had an impressive college career, starting ahead of future NFL draft selection Hassan Haskins at Michigan in 2019. However, his numbers regressed in 2020 due to COVID-19, splitting time with Haskins and losing work to other NFL-drafted players. In 2021, Charbonnet transferred to UCLA and saw his production skyrocket, posting a 25% dominator rating as a junior and finishing third among all RBs in PFF rushing grade.

His 2022 senior production was also elite, finishing fourth in PFF rushing grade among all RBs, while improving his receiving game, catching 37 balls for 320 yards on 44 targets. Charbonnet's collegiate accolades made him an attractive option for the Seattle Seahawks, who selected him in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft (52nd overall). Paired with last year's second-round pick, Kenneth Walker III, Charbonnet's skills complement Walker's home run rushing ability.

While Charbonnet can't match Walker's explosive plays, he can be counted on to deliver consistent production as a rusher and receiver. His 3-down skill set and draft capital suggest that he will be heavily involved in the Seahawks’ offense as a rookie, and he may even be the better fantasy asset compared to Walker when you consider the difference in ADP.

Geno Smith: Geno Smith is my favorite late-round quarterback because he's being so vastly undervalued. The 32-year-old proved all his fantasy doubters wrong in his first year as Seattle's fully-entrenched starter, finishing as the fantasy QB6 while averaging 19 fantasy points per game (QB8). The only QBs that scored more points per game than Smith last season were Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, and Lamar Jackson. Additionally, all the Seahawks did during the draft was invest in No. 1 WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. QB16 is still too cheap for Chef Geno in early best ball ADP. He should be viewed as a low-end fantasy QB1. Oh well, more for me (and you).

Chigoziem Okonkwo: My favorite late-round tight end is Chigoziem Okonkwo. He started the last two games of the season for Tennessee and flashed uber-efficiency in the receiving game.

Moore is in a brand-new situation with the Cleveland Browns and could easily emerge as the No. 2 WR in the offense. because the talent is THERE. As previously noted, Moore was the WR2 overall during his last stretch of six games during his rookie season, despite catching passes from Mike White, Zach Wilson and Josh Johnson.

I am buying Moore with the hopes that he recaptures that same fantasy ceiling with an upgraded quarterback and a new situation in 2023. There's a path where he is easily second on the team in targets, and I wouldn't completely rule out him out-targeting Cooper after we saw Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones (a free agent at the end of the season) post similar production at times in 2022. He should project as the team's locked-and-loaded starting slot WR, with rookie third-rounder Cedric Tillman pushing DPJ for snaps on the perimeter.

The rookie's 26% target rate ranked 2nd among all tight ends with at least 40 targets in 2022. He finished third in PFF receiving grade, first in yards per reception, and first in yards per route run among all tight ends. Moreso, both Austin Hooper/Geoff Swaim both departed in free agency, and the Titans neglected to add any more receiving competition in NFL Free Agency or the 2023 NFL Draft.

Damien Harris: Damien Harris had a lackluster 2022 campaign with the New England Patriots, playing in just 11 games due to injuries and averaging only 8.8 fantasy points and 49 rushing yards per game when he was on the field. However, he has found a new home with the Buffalo Bills, who signed him to a one-year contract to add more size to their backfield. With the Bills prioritizing a more balanced run-pass offense this offseason and improvements made to their offensive line, Harris could be in for a bounce-back season.

While Rhamondre Stevenson was the primary RB for the Patriots last season, Harris could carve out a role as the Bills’ featured red-zone back. In 2022, former Bills RB Devin Singletary totaled just four rushing TDs inside the 10-yard on 16 carries. Harris scored just as many times from inside the ten-yard line as Stevenson (three times) despite being out-carried in that area of the field 19 to six.

However, it's worth noting that QB Josh Allen is often used as a goal-line rusher, which could limit Harris’ touchdown upside. But we have seen quarterbacks run less at the goal line as they get older, so there's still a chance that Harris flirts with double-digit scores should his arrival mean the team leans on him more as their preferred rusher near the pylon to protect their franchise quarterback in the long term. Harris has landed in a situation that could provide him with plenty of scoring opportunities in 2023.

Elijah Moore: Elijah Moore is in a brand-new situation with the Cleveland Browns and could easily emerge as the No. 2 WR in the offense. because the talent is THERE. Moore was the WR2 overall during his last stretch of six games during his rookie season, despite catching passes from Mike White, Zach Wilson, and Josh Johnson.

I am buying Moore with the hopes that he recaptures that same fantasy ceiling with an upgraded quarterback and a new situation in 2023. There's a path where he is easily second on the team in targets, and I wouldn't completely rule out him out-targeting Cooper after we saw Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones (a free agent at the end of the season) post similar production at times in 2022.

He should project as the team's locked-and-loaded starting slot WR, with rookie third-rounder Cedric Tillman pushing DPJ for snaps on the perimeter.

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Andrew Erickson

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@AndrewErickson_

Andrew Erickson is a fantasy football analyst at FantasyPros.