Fantasy Football Middle

The 2023 NFL season is approaching, so it's time to prepare for your fantasy football draft. Of course, there's no better way to do that than to practice drafting with our free mock draft simulator! Beyond our tools, we will have you covered throughout the draft prep season with our content.

The goal of every fantasy football manager is to complete the perfect draft. Impossible, you say? Let's call it a stretch goal and strive for fantasy football glory. Here's Andrew Erickson's perfect 2023 fantasy football draft.

*Note that a blend of ADP sources was used, including Underdog, FFPC, Drafters, ESPN, CBS and BB10s.

The wide receivers in Round 4 are just as good as those in Round 3, so continue to pound away at the position. The primary wide receiver targets include Deebo Samuel, Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, Calvin Ridley, Terry McLaurin, D.J. Moore, Jerry Jeudy and Christian Watson, the latter of which can be found sometimes much cheaper.

If you have only one running back rostered (or none), Breece Hall is the priority target. After that, rookie Jahmyr Gibbs.

Considering ADP, Round 4 is also where I might feel most comfortable pulling the trigger on an elite fantasy QB such as Justin Fields, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert.

Justin Fields: Looking ahead to this season, it's highly anticipated that Bears’ quarterback, Justin Fields, will make a significant leap in his performance. Not only did he finish last season as QB6 in points per game with 20.6, but during his 11 games played from Weeks 5-17, he ranked as QB5 in points per game with a 24.1 per game mark. Moreover, the Bears have made significant improvements to their supporting cast in the offseason – highlighted by the additions of D.J. Moore and Darnell Wright — which sets the stage for Fields to continue his upward trajectory and become a supernova fantasy producer in Year 3.

Calvin Ridley: Marvin Jones‘ usage can provide us an idea of how the Jaguars will deploy their three top WRs in 2023, between Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Calvin Ridley. Jones ran a route on 73% of the dropbacks and led the Jaguars in deep targets (18) in 2022. He only caught three of them. All three players will be full-time starters in three WR sets, with Ridley providing a much-improved upgrade as a deep/red-zone threat.

Let's not forget that the last time we saw Ridley suit up, he was borderline elite at commanding targets. As the Falcons’ No. 1 receiver, he owned the sixth-highest target rate per route run and ranked second among all wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game (16.5). He's being drafted as a fantasy WR2 with easy fantasy WR1 upside, just two years removed from a 90-1374-9 2020 campaign.

Not to mention, Per FantasyPros’ strength of schedule tool, the Jaguars boast the No. 1 SOS for fantasy quarterbacks and fantasy WRs. The 2023 calendar is great for quarterback Trevor Lawrence and co. to take another leap in Year 3.

Jahmyr Gibbs: Jahmyr Gibbs, the highly-touted rookie running back, is set to take the field for the Detroit Lions in the upcoming 2023 fantasy football season. Gibbs displayed his impressive skills in college, with a 24% dominator rating during his time at Georgia Tech, where he played alongside future NFL running back Jordan Mason.

In his first year with the Crimson Tide, Gibbs demonstrated his receiving prowess, ranking third in the FBS in receiving yards and leading all RBs in the nation in receiving yards in the previous year. Gibbs’ breakaway run rate was fifth in the class, indicating his explosiveness as a rusher. At 5-foot-9 and 199 pounds, Gibbs is smaller than some other backs, but his speed and receiving ability more than makeup for it.

The Detroit Lions invested heavily in Gibbs, selecting him 12th overall in the NFL Draft, indicating that he is likely to take on a significant workload. Gibbs is expected to fill the role previously held by D’Andre Swift, who was highly efficient last season. Despite splitting touches with Jamaal Williams, Swift managed to rank highly in fantasy points per touch, yards per carry, and yards after contact per attempt.

With Swift now with the Eagles, Gibbs is expected to inherit a workload of at least 224 touches (based on the usual workload for a first-round rookie RB), with the potential for even more if he takes the lion's share of the carries. With his size and receiving ability, Gibbs could be a backend RB1, making him an attractive prospect for fantasy football enthusiasts in the upcoming season.

Continue to bolster depth with the next tier of wide receivers (Jerry Jeudy, Drake London, Mike Williams, Christian Watson, Chris Godwin, Tyler Lockett) and/or running backs (J.K. Dobbins), assuming the ones mentioned from Round 4 have already been selected. But do your best to push RB out as much as possible in this range coined the "RB Dead Zone."

Really try to go WR or even elite tight end first before another running back.

Jerry Jeudy: Jerry Jeudy impressed tremendously down the stretch when healthy. No player scored more fantasy points in (PPR) with a sub-75% overall route participation or posted a higher yards per route run versus man coverage than Jeudy last season. He also finished 13th in target rate per route run (23%).

And in Jeudy's last six games, he earned a 25% target share and finished fifth in receiving yards overall. From Week 10 onward, the Broncos wide receiver led the NFL in yards per route run (2.71).

Obviously, any upgraded quarterback play is great for Jeudy because he easily projects as the No. 1 WR on the offense from a volume perspective. And last year, he finally showed that he could score fantasy points finishing as the WR21, after failing to crack the top-45 his first two years in the league. With great route-running and separation skills to boot, Jeudy's stock should continue to rise.

Christian Watson: Christian Watson could experience a sophomore slump if Jordan Love can't deliver as the full-time starter for the Packers. However, I’d remain a buyer of Watson regardless because Watson was absolutely dynamite as a rookie.

His 26% target rate per route run is nothing but impressive, ranking 17th among all WRs with at least 400 snaps. Watson's 2.47 yards per route run ranked inside the top 10 and tied with superstar Davante Adams.

And in a must-win Week 18 contest vs. the Lions, he was once again the target leader (23% target share), going for 104 receiving yards on a team-high five catches. From Week 10 through Week 18, Watson ranked first in yards per route run (2.78). Over the same span, Watson was the WR9 in both total points and on a per-game basis in PPR.

If Watson takes over the downfield and red zone looks that Allen Lazard saw the majority of in 2022, prepare for a massive second-year leap.

He is the clear alpha in the Packers’ passing game, with the current depth chart listed as Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Grant DuBose and Samori Toure.

https://twitter.com/AndrewErickson_/status/1645842460306702354

J.K. Dobbins: J.K. Dobbins’ 2022 campaign got off to a sluggish start as he was recovering from major knee surgery and missed the first two weeks of the season.

However, when Dobbins finally returned later in the year, he showed why he's such a highly regarded talent. In his last five games, including the playoffs, he averaged an impressive 6.6 yards per carry, 92 rushing yards, and 14 carries per game. This strong finish is a promising sign for his 2023 prospects in an offense that should light the league ablaze under the QB/OC combination of Lamar Jackson/Todd Monken.

And although he continued to split carries with Gus Edwards in 2022, Dobbins’ explosive running style and effectiveness in the Ravens’ offense make him the best fantasy asset. Despite the presence of Edwards and Justice Hill in the backfield, Dobbins is the clear lead back for the Ravens and should be viewed as a top-tier fantasy option in 2023. Baltimore could ride him into the ground as an impending free agent.

Many of the elite quarterbacks will be off the board before Round 6. If you desire a QB, draft whichever top-tier passer – Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow or Justin Fields etc. — remains. The opportunity cost of drafting an elite quarterback is so much better in Round 6 versus Round 2/3.

And as always, don't feel pressured to draft a signal-caller because there are still plenty of great options in the following rounds. Oftentimes one slips into Round 7 or 8, such as Trevor Lawrence Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson or Tua Tagovailoa.

If there is a potential breakout running back/wide receiver available, continue to exhaust the remaining running backs and wide receivers available atop the 2023 rankings.

Chris Godwin: Godwin should remain at worst in the fantasy WR2 conversation regardless, based on a solid role in the slot. He still will be the heavy favorite to lead the team in targets and will be another year removed from his ACL injury. Over 1,000 receiving yards last season with just three TDs. Mayfield posted decent completion numbers with the Rams, and I think the offense in Tampa will be similar to that based on new OC Dave Canales coming from the Sean McVay, Shane Waldron scheme. From Week 4 onward, Godwin was WR11 in points per game last season.

Cam Akers: Akers had a rocky start to the 2022 season, getting benched in Week 1 and facing doubts about his role in the Rams’ backfield. However, Akers eventually emerged as the team's RB1 and finished the season as the RB4 in the final six weeks leading the NFL in rushing yards (85 yards/game). As the Rams enter a new season, Akers’ potential for high volume makes him an appealing option in fantasy football.

One reason for optimism is that Sean McVay is staying in Los Angeles, which bodes well for Akers to remain the primary option in the backfield. Akers played every snap in the Rams’ season finale, and the team did not select any running backs until the sixth round of this year's draft. This means that Akers will face little competition for touches, with only Day 3 picks Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers, as well as Zach Evans, as potential "threats".

Diontae Johnson: I am firmly planting my flag on Steelers WR Diontae Johnson to have a massive bounce-back campaign. He didn't score last season — likely a fluke — and second-year WR George Pickens is a darling in the fantasy community. But even though DJ is still the more proven asset, Pickens is consistently drafted ahead.

Johnson's ability to command targets based on his 28% target share and seventh-ranked 137 targets in 2022 suggests he is a prime candidate for positive regression in many facets. His combined downfield targets and red-zone targets were the most of any player not to score in 2022. Those trends don't tend to carry over from year-to-year. Buy-low on the WR15 in expected fantasy points per game from last season.

Darren Waller: By far, my favorite tight end to draft in this range is Darren Waller. He is my No. 3-ranked tight end. Because becoming the No. 1 pass-catching option for a team as tight end is a rare feat. There's only a handful of teams that feature such a player, with the Giants being the newest to join the list after their acquisition of the ex-Raiders tight end.

The 6-foot-6 pass-catcher came to Big Blue in exchange for a third-round pick, and he immediately should step in as the clear-cut No. 1 target for Daniel Jones. That was not the case for Waller last year, as he was fighting for targets with alpha Davante Adams. But Waller showed that when he was healthy that he could still deliver, ranking second in the NFL in yards per reception (13.9) and 10th in yards per route run. Waller "the baller" still has plenty left in the tank and should be viewed as a clear-cut winner post-trade.

He has the chance to replicate his 2021 numbers when he was the No. 1 receiver in his offense, posting top-5 fantasy tight end numbers. And better yet, Daniel Bellinger‘s elite usage/route participation from last season in the Brian Daboll offense as an every-snap player — 80 percent-plus snap share in six of the last seven games — suggests that Waller won't leave the field. That will make it that much easier for the TE7 in ADP to crest elite fantasy tight-end status.

TE Leaders in yards per route run (final 6 weeks)

1. Darren Waller – 2.662. Jelani Woods – 2.603. Chigoziem Okonkwo – 2.504. Travis Kelce – 2.215. Juwan Johnson – 2.16

Woods is DISCOUNT Okonkwo

S/O to @Fitz_FF for calling out Woods' 8-catch game last year as well. A rare...

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) May 19, 2023

Jordan Addison: I love targeting first-round rookie WR Jordan Addison in this range. He tends to be cheaper than fellow first-rounder Jaxon Smith-Njigba despite the former having the much better landing spot as the No. 2 WR alongside Justin Jefferson in the Vikings offense. It's Addison's NFL team fit and college profile that have me fully expecting him to hit the ground running. Recall that Addison broke out as an 18-year-old freshman in 2020 with 60 catches for 662 receiving yards and four receiving TDs.

The early-age production is a sign of an elite prospect, and it clearly foreshadowed Addison's rise to become one of the best WRs in college football. He transferred to USC from Pittsburgh this past year and led the Trojans with 59 catches for 875 yards and eight receiving TDs (79 targets). But more importantly, the 5-foot-11 and 173-pound wide receiver proved that he could play more outside after spending most of his time in the slot at Pittsburgh.

Antonio Gibson: Gibson had a polarizing 2022 season, splitting work in the Commanders’ backfield with rookie Brian Robinson. However, Gibson's proven track record of production, ideal size, and pass-catching chops make him an enticing buy-low running back target. Despite operating as an RB3 for much of the second half of 2022, Gibson remained much more involved in the passing game than Robinson, with an impressive 14% target share and an 80.5 PFF receiving grade.

The release of J.D. McKissic further solidifies Gibson's role as the primary receiving back for Washington. As a free agent at the end of 2023, the team could ride Gibson till the wheels fall off. Additionally, new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy's arrival may lead to more opportunities for Gibson, as he has no prior commitments to the hierarchy of the backfield from the 2022 season.

We could easily see him in a Jerick McKinnon-esque role in Washington. The Commanders’ tough schedule also foreshadows negative scripts, which favor Gibson's pass-catching abilities. Grab him as early as Round 9 or as late as Round 11.

Zach Charbonnet: Charbonnet had an impressive college career, starting ahead of future NFL draft selection Hassan Haskins at Michigan in 2019. However, his numbers regressed in 2020 due to COVID-19, splitting time with Haskins and losing work to other NFL-drafted players. In 2021, Charbonnet transferred to UCLA and saw his production skyrocket, posting a 25% dominator rating as a junior and finishing third among all RBs in PFF rushing grade.

His 2022 senior production was also elite, finishing fourth in PFF rushing grade among all RBs, while improving his receiving game, catching 37 balls for 320 yards on 44 targets. Charbonnet's collegiate accolades made him an attractive option for the Seattle Seahawks, who selected him in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft (52nd overall). Paired with last year's second-round pick, Kenneth Walker III, Charbonnet's skills complement Walker's home run rushing ability.

While Charbonnet can't match Walker's explosive plays, he can be counted on to deliver consistent production as a rusher and receiver. His 3-down skill set and draft capital suggest that he will be heavily involved in the Seahawks’ offense as a rookie, and he may even be the better fantasy asset compared to Walker when you consider the difference in ADP.

Geno Smith: Geno Smith is my favorite late-round quarterback because he's being so vastly undervalued. The 32-year-old proved all his fantasy doubters wrong in his first year as Seattle's fully-entrenched starter, finishing as the fantasy QB6 while averaging 19 fantasy points per game (QB8). The only QBs that scored more points per game than Smith last season were Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, and Lamar Jackson. Additionally, all the Seahawks did during the draft was invest in No. 1 WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. QB16 is still too cheap for Chef Geno in early best ball ADP. He should be viewed as a low-end fantasy QB1. Oh well, more for me (and you).

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