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What President Trump Will Do
Americans are waking up Wednesday to learn that they've elected President Trump.
The reality of this will come as a shock — just as the reality of Brexit came as a shock in the UK, where some people were apparently startled to realize what they had voted for. (Recent polls also suggest that, now that they've realized it, they regret it).
What are the consequences of electing Donald Trump president? What will happen? What will President Trump actually do?
Based on what we've heard from Trump and his campaign over the past 18 months, as well as a close reading of experts like Evan Osnos of The New Yorker — who wrote a great article on the topic — here are some of my assumptions about a theoretical Trump presidency.
Personally, I hope most of this doesn't happen. I hope that President Trump will be the president that some of his smarter supporters expect him to be — not the mean, petty, reckless, and uninformed proto-tyrant he sounds like, but a reasonable, effective pragmatist who just enjoys entertaining crowds by saying outrageous and offensive things and otherwise acting like a boor.
But given how consistent Trump has been in his actions and pronouncements over the past 18 months, I think it's more likely that what we've seen is what we will get.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Insider.
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President Trump will sign executive orders "erasing" as much of Obama's presidency as possible and tossing other bones to his supporters. President Trump will reinstate methods considered torture under international laws as intelligence-gathering tools. President Trump will immediately "bomb the hell out of ISIS" — somewhere. President Trump will quickly work with Congress to "repeal Obamacare." President Trump will continue to use the same rhetorical style he has used throughout the campaign. President Trump will also maintain the relationship to the truth that he has had throughout his campaign. President Trump will reward "terrific" people and punish "terrible" people. President Trump will announce that he is renegotiating NAFTA and other key US trade agreements and suspend potential participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership. President Trump will personally unveil plans for his southern border wall. President Trump will propose $1 trillion of new spending on US infrastructure. President Trump will never release his tax returns. President Trump will mishandle a tricky geopolitical or military situation — with grave and potentially catastrophic consequences. President Trump will try to modify the First Amendment and restrict freedom of the press. President Trump will respond to terror attacks by barring Muslims from entering the country and increasing surveillance and profiling of Muslims in the US. President Trump will get impatient with the "checks and balances" on presidential power and try to expand the power of the presidency. The stock market will drop 10-20% (for starters). The fiscal deficit and debt will balloon. At some point in President Trump's first term, there will be a major recession, and the stock market will drop 30-50% from the peak.